Why do we expect Iran to be doing anything different?

I think there’s a key misconception in public and diplomatic approaches to negotiations with Iran. We look at it as a defiant country, self-centered and uninterested in meaningful contact with the outside world. To a certain extent, these things are true. But look at them in the lens of Iran’s domestic situation. It’s crumbling. It’s undergone a revolution and a fraudulent election, and the citizens noticed. Ahmadinejad is in fact a crazy Holocaust denier, but it’s not like the country’s being run by a crackpot. I maintain that the Iranian government is scared s*^#less of what will happen when its citizens come round.

There’s an inherent discrepancy in the way Iran presents itself to the outside world. Ahmadinejad repeatedly calls for all sorts of sweeping changes to international politics, for huge changes in the way countries deal with each other. In a lot of cases, the things he’s saying make a lot of outward sense. Countries shouldn’t deal with each other on the basis of military might, and the will of several powerful countries shouldn’t be the only thing that matters. But the reason he’s calling for these things isn’t because he believes that they should actually happen because they’re just or proper. Iran isn’t involved enough in world politics to have any sort of meaningful effect on these issues. No, the reason he keeps mouthing off about them is because in order to join the established world order, to actually deal with other countries without deception, Iran would have to own up to its internal problems. It’s an oppressive theocracy. As this article (which in full disclosure is the reason I decided to write this post) points out, Iran is heavily dependent on the rest of the world economically. If we ratchet up the actual pressure, Iran will have to face its very real internal problems. That would mean stopping the funding of covert nuclear research and starting to build a more functional civil society. It would mean creating honest trade relationships with the rest of the world and deregulating the Internet and cell phone use within its borders. It’s a win-win situation; the people of Iran will be granted the freedoms they deserve, and the rest of the world will no longer be dealing with an angry, insular, and unstable country that’s trying to assert its place in the world to mask its real problems.

The Obama administration has signaled that such sanctions and pressure might be forthcoming.

I’m waiting.